Now, let's say Clinton wins the remaining primaries by an average spread of 10 points, which is extremely optimistic, especially since the largest state to vote after May 6th is Obama-friendly Oregon:
Obama
Has: 1935
Needs: 90 (30% of remaining supers)
Clinton
Has: 1818
Needs: 207 (70% of remaining supers)
So even under optimistic conditions for Clinton, Obama only has to convince 30% of the remaining 274 superdelegates and 19 Edwards
delegates to vote for him. Clinton, by contrast, would have to convince 70% of them to vote for her. I do not imagine that she'll be able to do that without a solid popular vote win. By solid, I mean counting the caucus states and not counting MI. She may be able to convince some superdelegates to buy the twisted logic of including MI while excluding the caucus states but surely not 70% of them.
See? Numbers good!
*Note to Clinton supporters: I could've supported her too - back when she was a Democrat. Now that she sounds almost exactly like a Republicon, not so much.
I don't understand why Clinton has fucked up as badly as she has. Does she actually think she'll get any 'publican supporters? She's done nothing more than isolate those that may have supported here in the first place.
ReplyDeleteOf course, there's still a bunch of wackos that support her anyway. I don't understand that at all.
Here's to Obama!
I think we're going to be drinking to an Obama victory here any moment.
ReplyDeleteAdios, Hillary! We loved you before you became a Republican!