Japan

Collapsed House and Road, Japan

What words are there for something like this?  The power of the earthquake that struck Japan, the chaos it caused, seem beyond the ability of language to grasp.  Pictures and video convey some of what it means to be fragile bags of organic matter living on the skin of an earth that sometimes convulses.  But even they can't make sense of it.  I suspect there's no sense to be made, when it comes right down to it.  This is just geology, and it's to be expected, and we do the best we can to hold on when the earth moves, then deal with the destruction left behind.  There's no reason, no purpose, just a reality we have to live with.

So, all of you who've watched those doomsday earthquake programs on your teevees: this is what a megathrust earthquake looks like.  The plates slip, and the earth shakes so hard the whole planet moves, and an entire ocean is set in motion.  The only reason you won't hear on the news that hundreds of thousands or millions of people died is because the Japanese were smart and looked into their future and realized that to live life on a subduction zone, you have to take some precautions.  So you can't measure this disaster in the cost of human lives.  There were a lot of lives lost.  It could climb into the high thousands, the tens of thousands, before this is done, but because the Japanese looked into the future without flinching, and spent the money to harden themselves as a target, the lives lost won't scale with the scope of this earthquake.  No, we'll have to look at things like the fact an entire country got moved by several feet, or that entire coastlines got altered in an instant, wiped out, washed away, to see how truly enormous this is.

Had it happened here, you could have used human lives to scale it.  We in the northwestern bit of America haven't hardened the target enough.  Can't be bothered to spend the money or the political capital, can't be bothered to face the future without flinching, would rather pretend it can't happen here.  But oh, it can.  And it will.  The only question is when.  Today?  Tomorrow?  Next year, or decade, or century?  We don't know.  Good Mother Earth probably gives us some warning when she's about to lose her grip, but we don't yet understand what she's saying.  We'll only know when the shaking starts, and by then it will be too late to build structures that can survive a megathrust earthquake, and to create the escape routes people will need when it's time to move to high ground before the world has even stopped shaking.  Too late to mitigate the damage.  Too late.

So why live here? I asked myself as the tsunami rolled toward our shores and I had to face the fact that what had just happened half a world a way could just as easily been happening right here, right now, right this instant.

And the answer is that it's worth the risk.  No guarantees anywhere.  No perfectly safe haven on this planet.  Maybe no subduction zone earthquake and tsunami in the interior of the continent, but other disasters await: drought, tornadoes, floods, fires, volcanoes, an out-of-control bus.  Nowhere on this earth am I guaranteed to live without catastrophe.  No place on the planet where something, whether natural or man-made, geological or biological, won't be waiting to kill me.  So why not here?  Why not take this slightly higher risk in return for life in a fantastically beautiful place?  Why not?

It would just be nice if our building codes made the calculation of risk a little more friendly, is all.

In Japan, they prepared as best they could, and they're people who know how to rise up from the ruins of a disaster and keep on going.  The country will never be the same.  But they'll rescue the survivors, bury the dead, clean up the debris: they won't give up, won't give in to despair.  They'll go on, they will, one of the most beautiful civilizations on the planet.  And after this is done, they'll be a little bit more prepared for the next one, and if we're wise, we'll follow their example.

It's just a catastrophe, is all. 

For those looking for good resources on the quake and its aftermath, Silver Fox has an excellent list o' links.  Lockwood's been collecting pictures, video, and has quite a few good thoughts on various matters.  Callan's been on top of it from the first morning, not to mention the morning after, and has one of those read-it-or-else type of posts up on secondary effects.  Evelyn's dad was kind enough to lend his expertise to the whole business of damaged nuclear reactors.  And Chris Rowan, of course, came through with one of his fantastic explanations of how the earth moved.  He's like a geological medical examiner. 

Da-amn

Via Callan Bentley and many others, Christchurch moments after the earthquake struck:

That's the dust of a city shaking apart.  Incredible.  If anyone finds out who took this, let me know so I can include proper credit.

Here's another striking image, from friends of @monaeltahawy via a myriad of Twitter folk: 

All of this has put me very much in mind of the quote often attributed to Will Durant: "Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice."

Our own Chris Rowan was interviewed by the Christian Science Monitor for an article on the quake.  And don't forget to check out his post, which he's keeping updated.

At least 75 dead so far, hundreds missing. A man took a walk through the ruins, and said more than perhaps anyone can about the aftermath.

Disasters are just that - disastrous.  But the survivors will ensure something whole and beautiful rises from the rubble.  In time.

World Coming Down

I'd meant to get the next Oregon Geology post up, but instead have spent the past several days watching in bemusement, sometimes in horror, as the world changes.

In Wisconsin, the Cons in control have rather overplayed their hand.  I'm proud of the Dems there who left the state to deny a quorum, and incredibly proud of the tens of thousands of citizens who continue to protest.  It's not just about the unions, either - if you read that noxious budget, you'll find plenty of gems like Walker & the Cons' plans to sell off the state one piece at a time to corporations.  Keep this in mind as you watch Cons in other states rush to follow suit.  If you were one of those who fell for the "where are the jobs?" schtick, I hope you feel a proper fool just now.  The Cons are never about the jobs.  They're about theocracy and oligarchy, and they're about breaking the backs of the common folk.

Unfortunately for them, they've chosen this moment in time to step on ordinary people.  It might have gone more smoothly for them if, at this very moment, the entire Middle East hadn't flared up, with citizens pouring into the streets to topple dictator after dictator, no matter the personal cost.  After Egypt, ordinary folk aren't quite as willing to abide quietly under the heels of their masters.  I hate to tell the Cons this, but as complacent and submissive, as easily distracted by shiny things, as Americans can be, I don't think this is a good time to be trampling all over women, workers, science, and - well, everybody except for their corporate masters and religious right ringleaders.  Libyans are still out there demanding regime change after getting slaughtered.  Something tells me Americans might be a little more willing to risk a bit of inconvenience to prevent the GOP from decimating the country, considering nothing they do to us could be quite as bad.  We'd be fools just to meekly accept their shit.

What I'm saying is: have your sleeping bags ready and sign-making materials to hand, my fellow Americans, because the time is coming soon when we, like our mates in Wisconsin, may find it necessary to camp out at capitols in order to make our wishes clear.  Surely we can manage that much. 

What's happening in Libya is horrific.  The government there has turned its weapons of war on its own people.  I'm hoping the UN and the US government will get off their asses and put a stop to it, because there are people getting blown to bits out there.  I clicked on a link to a photo today and saw the results of a despot desperate to stay in power: bodies cut in half.  Do not click this link if you can't stand the sight of blood, because the people in this photo were butchered.  I almost wish I hadn't seen it.  But you know what?  I needed to.  It gave me perspective on many things.  It showed me the violence our country hasn't even attempted to stop, and it told me just how fantastically brave these people are, that they'd risk this to demonstrate for their freedom.  It showed me how much freedom is worth.  And it showed me that we've got a ways to go before it gets this bad here, but more importantly, that we need to ensure it never does.

Those folks in the Middle East going out right now to put an end to too many years of autocrats and dictators, those folks who are finding the power of peaceful protest, who are taking their destinies in their hands not with terrorism, but with courage, are so incredible.  I don't know what future they'll build, but at least they've got the strength to build it for themselves.  I hope all of them succeed.  I'm in awe of them.

So there's the political world, all shaken up and in places toppling over, sometimes inspiring and sometimes horrific.  But that's not the only news that's crossed my Twitter feed and left me reeling.  There's also Christchurch, New Zealand, which got hit nearly dead-on with an earthquake.  Buildings are down, people dead, and it's a reminder that we are not as much in control of the world as we might like to believe.  Two earthquakes there in less than twelve months - and likely aftershocks to come.  I know they're strong folk and that they'll manage to rebuild, but I feel for them.  It's not easy, living at a plate boundary.  Days like this are tragic.

Really does seem like the world's coming down.  I just hope a better one rises up.

Humanists Helping Haiti

I'm sure most of you have seen this on Pharyngula, but for the one or two folks who don't hang on PZ's every word, here's the link for godless giving.  Your donation goes to Doctors Without Borders and the Red Cross.  And now we have a nice central gathering spot for all those godless donations.

Meanwhile, the horror in Haiti keeps bringing out the burning stupid in people:

I heard a nice chat on the BBC World Service the other evening. Roger Heering was naturally very worried that the people of Haiti might have lost their 'religious faith' due to the recent unpleasantness, and he and a woman from a faithy charity group talked about it. 'You might think this would undermine it,' he said to her anxiously, but she was quick to reassure him. 'It actually seems to have strengthened it,' she said in a pleased tone. They hugged themselves in glee, and then Roger Heering turned to the sports.

But that's interesting, isn't it - having all the buildings fall down and tens of thousands of people die and tens of thousands more lying around screaming in agony is another point for God. Well if that's the case, what would be a point against God then? What would God have to do to make everyone decide God was a shit? Not just letting children lie under a slab of concrete for hours and hours crying in pain and fear and misery and then die. So, what then? It's frankly quite hard to think of anything. If that kind of thing goes in the credit column, it's hard to think of anything that would be considered a demerit.

I guess we're going to have to come up with a corollary to the IOKIYAR rule: IOKIYAG.  It's okay if you're a god.  Put it like this: if someone came to me with proof that god (any god) exists, and further proved that he's omniscient and omnipotent as advertised, I'd no longer be an atheist - but I'd surely be telling them to shove the worship where the sun don't shine.  Sadists and murderers aren't worshiped round here, thankyewverymuch.

Meanwhile, back in reality, rescue crews are still finding the occasional survivor in the rubble - and not getting to other survivors in time.  Food is getting to survivors - but sometimes not.  Order and chaos still coexist amidst the stench of rotting flesh.  But help is flooding in.  Things may get much worse before they get better, but at least the world is reaching Haiti, and more help is on the way.

And President Obama did the right thing.  Undocumented Haitians in the United States now have Temporary Protected Status.  That's on top of all the other right things he's done, mind.  I am so very, very happy we have an adult in charge again.

Haiti: Help Slow in Coming

When you've had a major earthquake in a poor country, getting aid to the survivors in the disaster zone is a nightmare.  And while the world's been focused on Port-au-Prince, there are a great many other towns that have been just as badly affected and are even more inaccessible.  Here's just a small glimpse of the horror: patients abandoned as medical personnel are evacuated; bodies in mass graves, when they're in graves at all.

And what's the most useful thing Rep. Steve King thinks can be done?  He wants the U.S. to deport Haitians so they can be "relief workers."

Meanwhile, Glenn Beck babbles about how President Obama's rapid response is "dividing the nation."  Only a total fucking batshit insane partisan fool thinks a swift, competent response to a major disaster is "divisive."

Paging Roger Ebert: now that you're done spanking Rush Limbaugh's fat arse, maybe you can take on those two dumbshits. (h/t Chris)

The vast majority of my fellow Americans are kind, decent, and compassionate people.  Most of our current government is responding with competence and compassion.  Alas, when it comes to right-wing shitheels, it seems even a major tragedy isn't enough to knock some decency into them.

Haitians still need our help, so if you haven't had a chance to do so, please consider choosing a well-deserving organization from the list and sending some cash their way.

Haiti: Some Essential Reading

What a horrific situation.  Three days after the quake, relief is having a hard time finding its way into the country.  The port's destroyed, the airstrip's overwhelmed, and roads are impassable.  People are dying waiting for medical care, much less rescue.  It's going to get worse before it gets better.  But damn, is it ever good to have an adult in charge of the American response.  Obama's ensured that, even though this is a far more difficult disaster to deal with than Katrina was, not to mention the fact that Haiti's not a U.S. city, our response is comprehensive, appropriate, and swift.  Well, aside from getting George W. "Heckuva Job" Bush on board with the relief efforts, but I understand that's a PR move and Obama's smart enough not to put him in charge of anything important.


The United States Air Force took over air traffic control responsibilities for the airport in Port-au-Prince, restoring some order amidst the chaos.  The airport's handling three times the traffic it's used to, and there are delays, but things are better than they were.  This allows search and rescue teams from various countries to get in and get to work.  Within a few days, the American military should have heavy equipment on the ground, start clearing blocked roads, and make it a lot easier to get aid in to the disaster zone.  And in the short term, we'll be getting ships equipped with helicopters in to ferry supplies and personnel.  Some folks might complain the military hasn't responded quickly enough.  Those folks can go hang - we're talking about a massive rescue effort that has to be coordinated with a government that's in shambles.  I'm surprised the response has been as rapid as it has been.

And no, the military can't just invade a foreign country, not even for humanitarian reasons.  Especially not with our history.  Did you know that Bush the Elder and Bush the Younger both removed Haiti's democratically-elected president in what basically amounted to coups?  And that's not even the half of how the Western world has shit upon these people.  We have a bad history that goes back to the beginning of this country.  So, no, sending in a wave of American troops without coordinating with Haiti's government probably wouldn't be a great idea, no matter how noble the motives. 

Tragedy sometimes brings out the best in people.  Alas, it still doesn't do that for Rush Limbaugh.  Forgive me the temptation to spike his cigar with Superglue.  Meanwhile, Faux News devoted a whole 7 minutes of evening programming to the tragedy.  It appears that interviewing Sarah Palin, trashing Jon Stewart, and plugging Scott Brown for Senate is far more important to them than covering one of the worst earthquake disasters to ever strike this hemisphere.

Our own George takes on "compassion tourism."  Don't even get me started on this.  I'm still seeing red.

But here's something wonderful: folks have donated more than $7 million dollars via text message.  Here's how you can bring it to $10 million:

•  Text the word "HAITI" to 90999 to donate $10 to the Red Cross.
  
• Text the word "YELE" to 501501 to donate $5 to the Yele Haiti foundation.
• Text the word "HAITI" to 20222 to donate $10 to the Clinton Foundation Haiti Relief Fund.
• Text "HAITI" to 25383 to donate $5 to the International Rescue Committee.
• Text "HAITI" to 85944 to donate $10 to the International Medical Corps.

And yes, all of the above are legit.  So you can give safely.  You can also hit up this list here, if you prefer to give through more traditional channels.

One of the most tragic things I read today was what Port-au-Prince resident Bellefleur Jean Heber said: "Haiti is an abandoned country....  People are relying on themselves."

You're not abandoned, Mr. Heber.  Help's coming as fast as it can.  Rescuers from all over the world are  having a hard time getting through, but they're going to be there for you soon.

We won't forget you.

Thoughts on Haiti

I've got CNN on right now.  The Big Dog's speaking, and it's strangely calming.  I know why: he's got a firm handle on what needs to be done, and he's just calmly ticking off the list: helicopters, medical teams, search and rescue teams, earth-moving equipment.  Then things switch over to Anderson Cooper in Haiti, with people running and screaming in the background, screaming about water - a flood?  Water being handed out?  It gives a sense of the chaos and fear in the darkness there.

After a time, things settle.  People stop running.  

So: calm and chaos.  Desperation and hope.  That's Haiti, right now.

Earlier, I watched a flyover video shot by the Coast Guard.  You'll notice that some areas seem untouched, while others are completely flattened:



I could tell the geology of some of the zones just from the extent of the damage: toward the end of the video, you'll see an area close to the sea where it seems every building is down.  Unconsolidated sediments or earth fill.  Something that turned to jelly when the ground began to shake.

Even in the areas of Port-au-Prince that look okay, a closer examination would show cracks in the buildings, structural damage so extreme that going inside could be a death sentence.  This city wasn't built to withstand earthquakes.  It barely manages to stand on a good day.

We'll never know how many people may have survived if Haiti had the resources to build solid structures.

Here's my impossible dream: stop fighting and start building.  I can't help but think of the resources put into war, and just how much better use those resources could be put to.  Lifting people out of crushing poverty.  Earthquake-proofing buildings in fault zones.  Bracing communities for other natural disasters.  And even after spending so much money on all that, there'd likely still be extra money left for things like curing diseases and developing alternative forms of energy. 

No, I know it'll never happen.  But that doesn't mean we can't work for it.

Haiti

I spent a huge, depressing portion of today reading about the devastation in Haiti.  It's not quite 2004 tsunami-level destruction, but it's close enough.

For the science behind the tragedy, you could head on over to Highly Allochthonous for a discussion of the plate tectonics that will at least help you understand why the earth broke.  The Frontal Cortex cautions us not to let the scale of the disaster overwhelm our empathy.

Speaking of empathy, Digby has a long list of aid agencies that could use some cash.  The Center for International Disaster Information explains why cash donations are more useful than goods like blankets or clothing in a tragedy like this.  Haiti's going to need a huge number of resources, from medical rescue to food to clothing to shelter to funds for rebuilding.  Earthquake destruction of this magnitude is bad enough when it happens to a reasonably wealthy country: one as poor as Haiti, well, they haven't the resouces to handle this alone.  Especially not on top of all the other disasters they've faced just recently. 

Greg Laden has a good list of various resources for those who want to keep up with the news, seek missing relatives, or want further options for assistance.

And, of course, no disaster is complete without the requisite stupidity from shitheels like Rush Limbaugh (who just can't seem to shut up),  rabid right frothers, and assorted others.  To all of them: fuck you, you heartless fucktards.

So forget them.  There'll be time enough to spank them once Haiti's been helped.   There are people who need us now.

To My Australian Readers

Please take any and all steps necessary to avoid burning to death or drowning. It doesn't look pretty Down Under at all.

That would be a NASA satellite photo of fires in Victoria that have killed upwards of 71 people. Not good.

And while bits of Australia fry to a crisp, other bits flood. As if this weren't bad enough, I discover my Aussie friends now face chronic crocodiles, among worse dangers:

Local media said huge crocodiles in the centre of some towns around the Gulf of Carpentaria have hampered rescue efforts and large numbers have reportedly been seen swimming towards the 60 km-wide (37-mile) mouth of the flooded Norman River.

Manager of the Albion Hotel in Normanton, Donna Smith, said a four-metre (13ft) crocodile had been seen stalking residents and dogs in the flooded main street.

She also warned the town was expected to run out of beer in two days.

"We can put up with a lot of drama, no fruit and veggies, but nobody wants a pub with no beer," Ms Smith told Brisbane's Courier-Mail newspaper.

Seriously, you guys. Stay safe. And should you need a couch, well, I've got one. Beer could certainly be arranged.

The Timothy McVeigh Finishing School

Fighting the terrorists over there so that the terrorists here gain valuable experience in killing brown people and blowing things up:

Two years ago, the Southern Poverty Law Center ran a devastating report describing the infiltration of neo-Nazis into the ranks of the American military. The Pentagon's official response was steadfast denial of the problem.

The SPLC's David Holthouse just published a follow-up report, and found, predictably, that the problem is getting worse as the conflict in Iraq drags on:

A new FBI report confirms that white supremacists are infiltrating the military for several reasons. According to the unclassified FBI Intelligence Assessment, "White Supremacist Recruitment of Military Personnel Since 9/11," which was released to law enforcement agencies nationwide: "Sensitive and reliable source reporting indicates supremacist leaders are encouraging followers who lack documented histories of neo-Nazi activity and overt racist insignia such as tattoos to infiltrate the military as 'ghost skins,' in order to recruit and receive training for the benefit of the extremist movement."

The FBI report details more than a dozen investigative findings and criminal cases involving Iraq and Afghanistan veterans as well as active-duty personnel engaging in extremist activity in recent years. For example, in September 2006, the leader of the Celtic Knights, a central Texas splinter faction of the Hammerskins, a national racist skinhead organization, planned to obtain firearms and explosives from an active duty Army soldier in Fort Hood, Texas. That soldier, who served in Iraq in 2006 and 2007, was a member of the National Alliance, a neo-Nazi group.

Fantastic. As if we didn't have enough of these insane fuckers to deal with, now we've handed them the training they need to be even more fucking dangerous.

And if you think we're going to win Iraqi hearts and minds with a bunch of skinheads in the mix, think again:

One of the Blood & Honour members claiming to be an active-duty soldier taking part in combat operations in Iraq identified himself to Kennard as Jacob Berg. He did not disclose his rank or branch of service. "There are actually a lot more 'skinheads,' 'nazis,' white supremacists now [in the military] than there has been in a long time," Berg wrote in an E-mail exchange with Kennard. "Us racists are actually getting into the military a lot now because if we don't every one who already is [in the military] will take pity on killing sand niggers. Yes I have killed women, yes I have killed children and yes I have killed older people. But the biggest reason I'm so proud of my kills is because by killing a brown many white people will live to see a new dawn."

Asking yourself how batshit insane haters like this ended up in the military, aren't you?

The source of the problem, as the report explained, was the extreme pressure military recruiters were under to fill their recruitment quotas. "Recruiters are knowingly allowing neo-Nazis and white supremacists to join the armed forces," said Barfield, "and commanders don’t remove them . . . even after we positively identify them as extremists or gang members." The military downplayed a neo-Nazi presence in the ranks, Barfield added, "because then parents who are already worried about their kids signing up and dying in Iraq are going to be even more reluctant about their kids enlisting if they feel they’ll be exposed to gangs and white supremacists."

Well. Isn't that just an excellent fucking reason not to do something about a problem that's going to (literally) blow up in our faces? There aren't enough cursewords in the dictionary to express what I'm thinking right now.

David Neiwert calls our military "the Timothy McVeigh Finishing School." He's absolutely right, and it's absolutely appalling.

Yet another Bush-era mess we'll be cleaning up for a long time to come.

Don't Like Ike

I'm sitting here watching the numbers of customers without power in Houston tick up: 1.3 million, 1.6 million, 1.8 million...

I'm reading about the thousands of people who either ignored or couldn't heed evacuation orders, and whose calls to 911 are now being answered with a sad, "We can't help you."

You don't really think of things burning down in a flood and driving rain, but fires are burning: Galveston yacht basin, Brennan's restaurant in downtown Houston, among others. It's hard to respond to a fire when there's eight feet of water on the road. The images are jarring: gray rain, gray floodwaters, bright orange flames.

The National Weather Service's "face certain death" warning starts to look understated.

I have a friend in Houston. I hope he and his grandparents got out, or are in a somewhat safer area. At the moment, high ground and strong walls surely look inviting.

According to the pictures, some people find standing on sea walls watching waves crash is more inviting. There's already one man dead because of it. When forecasters are predicting waves that will overtop the seawalls by several feet, it seems like a good time to slip your inner daredevil a mickey and get the fuck out of the area.

People do some damned fool things when floodwaters strike. When I lived in Arizona, we had one group of idiots die because they decided to take a backhoe out into a flooded wash in New River to see how deep the water was. Answer: deep enough to topple a backhoe and drown the people riding it. Another group of intrepid fools in Prescott decided that the best time to go canoeing on Willow Creek was at the height of a flood. They didn't survive, either.

We don't realize the power of water until it sweeps us away.

My ex-grandmother-in-common-law told me, after her vacation house in the Virgin Islands got destroyed by Hurricane Hugo, that she'd once had to ride out a hurricane in Hong Kong in a high-rise apartment building. She and the group with her spent a good portion of their evening bracing the wall, feeling the wind try to batter it down on them. The roar of wind and rain was nearly deafening, even inside. The glass wall groaned under the strain: they could feel it bowing under their hands. They were lucky to survive.

Houston's high-rises look set to take a pretty hard hit, themselves. Reports say there's already debris flying.

Water is pouring over levees in Louisiana. There's only so much man-made structures can do to protect against storms like this. What Ike lacks in ferocity, it's more than made up for in size, and when you're talking about miles and miles of water being herded inland, size matters very much indeed.

At times like this, you understand that Mother Nature pwns humanity with ease.